Back to top

Image: Bigstock

Bumble's Paying Users Drop 8.7% in Q2: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Read MoreHide Full Article

Key Takeaways

  • Bumble reported 8.7% decline in paying users and 7.6% revenue drop in Q2 2025 results.
  • BMBL trades at significant discount with forward P/E of 10.9x versus industry average 39.76x.
  • The company's strategic transformation prioritizes quality users over quantity amid revenue decline.

Bumble (BMBL - Free Report) reported second-quarter 2025 results that underscore the challenges facing the online dating company as it navigates a fundamental business transformation. The 8.7% decline in total paying users to 3.8 million and the 7.6% revenue drop to $248.2 million paints a concerning picture for growth-focused investors. While management's strategic pivot toward quality over quantity shows promise, the current valuation and near-term headwinds suggest investors should either hold existing positions or wait for a more attractive entry point.

Q2 Performance Reveals Mixed Signals

The company's second-quarter financial results present a paradox that characterizes its current transition phase. Despite the revenue decline and user attrition, Bumble demonstrated impressive cost management, achieving Adjusted EBITDA of $94.6 million, or 38.1% of revenues, compared with $75.0 million, or 27.9% of revenues, in the prior year. This margin expansion resulted from aggressive cost-cutting measures, including a $100 million reduction in the company's cost base and significant reduction in marketing spend.

The stark contrast between operational efficiency and growth metrics became more pronounced with the company recording a net loss of $367 million, largely due to non-cash impairment charges of $404.9 million. These impairment charges reflect management's acknowledgment of the strategic shift's impact on near-term growth prospects and the need to recalibrate expectations.

The company is executing what management describes as a comprehensive rebuild of its technology infrastructure with an AI-first approach. This includes implementing enhanced trust and safety features, such as mandatory phone verification and selfie identification, aimed at improving member quality by removing bots and low-intent users.

The strategic focus on attracting higher-quality, more intentional users has already shown early results, with full-price payers increasing quarter over quarter and now representing 80% of total payers, up from 70% in the first quarter. However, this quality-over-quantity approach comes with short-term pain, as evidenced by the declining user metrics and revenue guidance that continues to point downward.

Industry Dynamics and Relative Valuation

The global online dating market continues to expand at a healthy pace, projected to reach $13.4 billion by 2030 from approximately $9.3 billion in 2024, witnessing a 6.3% CAGR. Match Group (MTCH - Free Report) , Bumble's primary competitor with a portfolio including Tinder, Hinge, and OkCupid, maintains market dominance with more than 16 million paying users. Other publicly traded players include Grindr (GRND - Free Report) , focusing on the LGBTQ+ segment, and Momo (MOMO - Free Report) , which operates niche dating platforms like Zoosk and Elite Singles.

Despite facing operational challenges, Bumble trades at a significant discount with a forward P/E of approximately 10.9x, notably below the Zacks Internet - Software industry average of 39.76x, suggesting that the market has already priced in significant pessimism, creating an asymmetric risk-reward profile for the strategic transformation to gain traction. Comparatively, Grindr, Match Group and Momo trade at respective P/E values of 29.21x, 9.67x and 6.53x.

BMBL’s P/E F12M Ratio Depicts Discounted Valuation

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Shares of Bumble have plunged 22.4% in the year-to-date period against the Zacks Computer and Technology sector’s growth of 7.4%. In comparison, shares of Disney’s competitors, including Grindr (GRND - Free Report) , have lost 12.1% year to date, while shares of Momo (MOMO - Free Report) and Match Group (MTCH - Free Report) have returned 4.4% and 10.3%, respectively.

BMBL Underperforms Sectors, Peers YTD

Zacks Investment Research
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Forward Outlook and Investment Considerations

Looking ahead, third-quarter guidance indicates continued pressure with total revenues expected between $240 million and $248 million, suggesting a year-over-year decrease of 12% to 9%. Management has deliberately avoided providing full-year 2025 guidance, acknowledging that rebuilding product momentum will require at least several quarters.

The company maintains a solid financial foundation with $262 million in cash and strong cash flow generation of $71 million in the second quarter. This financial flexibility provides a buffer during the transformation period and supports continued investment in AI capabilities and product innovation without immediate liquidity concerns.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter revenues is pegged at $244.2 million, indicating a 10.75% year-over-year decline, with earnings expected to decrease 11.43% to 31 cents per share. These projections suggest a slump ahead.

Bumble Inc. Price and Consensus

Bumble Inc. Price and Consensus

Bumble Inc. price-consensus-chart | Bumble Inc. Quote

Investment Recommendation

For current shareholders, holding appears prudent given the ongoing strategic transformation and strong balance sheet. The company's focus on sustainable growth through improved user quality could yield long-term benefits, but patience will be required as these initiatives mature.

For prospective investors, waiting for a better entry point seems advisable. The key catalyst to watch will be stabilization in user metrics and early signs of revenue recovery, likely not before the first half of 2026. Until then, Bumble remains a show-me story requiring evidence that its quality-focused strategy can reignite growth while maintaining improved profitability margins. Bumble currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Published in